"The proposition that the abortive mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin will result in a more vulnerable and weakened Vladimir Putin is appealing to those of us hoping for a quick victory for Ukraine and possibly even regime change in Moscow. After all, as we were reminded by the Arab Spring movements in 2011 that led to the downfall of several longstanding authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, such regimes seem stable—until they’re not. Hopes for major political turmoil in Russia and/or threats to Putin’s iron grip on power, however, may prove premature. Recent examples in other countries offer reasons for caution. Prigozhin’s failed play for power may lead to a further consolidation of power in Putin’s hands, at least temporarily. And even if successful, a coup in Moscow may not produce a more benign leadership, though this is not to argue we should root for Putin to stay in power. ...”
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